Chaotic Black Friday ahead: Geotab warns of gridlock and delays

Shoppers likely set for gridlocked retail parks and far slower doorstep deliveries as last-mile trips rise and idling spikes

London, 11 November 2025 - Geotab, a global leader in connected vehicle solutions, is warning consumers, fleet managers and delivery operators to brace for a chaotic Black Friday on the roads, with stop-start traffic and delivery delays expected nationwide. Geotab’s analysis of the data shows the pressure on roads in the UK and Ireland doesn’t just affect delivery times, but it also has a measurable impact on fuel use and emissions, reinforcing that predictable driving patterns can have outsized environmental and cost consequences during peak retail weeks. 

In 2024, trips per vehicle rose by 12% compared to the beginning of the month while idling climbed by nearly 10% in the week of Black Friday - clear signs that gridlock, late deliveries and higher emissions are set to return this year.

What happened in the UK during Black Friday week 2024 (and will likely repeat in 2025):

• Trips per vehicle rose 12% compared to the beginning of the month, peaking at 16% as vans squeezed in more drops
• Average distance per trip fell 8%, pointing to denser, short-hop routes to homes and click-and-collect points
• Idling jumped 9% as drivers were gridlocked or left the engine running during kerbside deliveries
• Fuel consumed per vehicle increased by 8% compared to the beginning of the month, driving up emissions and costs - even before the Christmas rush

The surge in fuel consumption was mirrored by an equivalent rise in CO₂ output per vehicle, underlining the direct link between stop-start urban driving and emissions performance. Similar patterns were evident across all of Europe, in addition to the UK and Ireland. 

“Black Friday shouldn’t mean burning unnecessary time or fuel,” said Edward Kulperger, Senior Vice President, Europe at Geotab. “The data tells us that this crunch is predictable: more drops, shorter hops and far longer idling. Yet with smarter planning - down to the minute and the meter - fleets can protect delivery ETAs, drivers and margins.” 

Why data matters to the public

Even small changes in driving patterns at national scale have big consequences. In Black Friday week 2024, Geotab’s analysis found per-vehicle fuel use jumped from a 48L baseline to ~52L, adding cost and CO₂ at precisely the moment delivery demand soars. Multiply that across busy last-mile fleets in the UK and Ireland and the hidden cost to wallets and air quality quickly adds up. 

What fleets and couriers can do during Black Friday week

• Micro-route for car-park reality: Plan by entrance/egress and known choke points, not just postcodes - idling is the enemy on Black Friday
• Stagger drops and batch nearby consignments to further maintain rolling speeds and cut engine-on dwell
• Tune driver coaching for short-hop urban work (gentle throttle, engine-off dwell policies, safe reverse-park practices) to trim seconds at each stop and reduce collision risk
• Deploy EVs where they can win: 2024 data shows EV share of trips dipped during peak hours, therefore use charging/shift planning to keep EVs on the most stop-start urban loops

The data shows that delivery intensity remains elevated through Christmas, but route profiles gradually lengthen and idling falls slightly. This signals a broader shift from shorter urban drops to further-reaching, regional runs. Fleets that are able to understand this transition will be in a stronger position to adjust resource allocation across the season. 

Geotab processes billions of vehicle data points daily to help fleets run smarter, safer and greener, with more than five million connected vehicle subscriptions worldwide in 2025 - giving a uniquely broad, real-world lens on the UK and Ireland’s delivery patterns. 

Methodology: Geotab analysed data from its connected vehicles in France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands and Italy, examining changes in driver behaviour during the Black Friday and Christmas periods. The data was collected between 1 November and 31 December 2024.