Black Friday’s hidden cost: increased emissions and fleet strain

United Kingdom, 29 November 2024 - In its comprehensive study, Geotab, a global leader in IoT and connected transportation, has revealed significant insights into the trends shaping the last-mile delivery landscape during the most intense retail periods of the year – from Black Friday through to Boxing Day. 

Geotab's analysis of data from over 4 million connected vehicle subscriptions revealed a spike in the real-world use of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) during this sales peak, indicating resource strain on last-mile delivery operations. Notably, a vehicle makes on average 11% more trips during Black Friday week and 9% more during Christmas. The data also showed a significant uptick in idling ratios and fuel consumption, including CO2 emissions, during these periods, an increase in shorter trips but with more frequent stops, adding complexity to fleet management.

"Geotab’s data reveals the intense pressure on last-mile delivery, with Black Friday and holiday deliveries pushing fleets to their limits, and companies seeking to balance increased consumer demand and addressing the environmental concerns that shape consumer preferences,” said Edward Kulperger, Senior Vice President of Europe at Geotab. 

“Companies that thrive in this peak retail season are those that leverage technology to not just meet demand, but to anticipate it. From predictive maintenance that keeps vehicles rolling, to data driven insights that promote safer and more sustainable roads, Geotab is empowering businesses to navigate the complexities of modern delivery and redefine what’s possible in the last mile,” added Kulperger.

Over Black Friday week and Christmas week in 2023, Geotab saw a recorded average consumption of 46 litres of fuel (for Internal Combustion Engine vehicles), above the baseline of 44 litres of fuel consumed in a ‘normal’ week. Assuming the average cost of fuel of £1.50 per litre, the additional cost is £3 per vehicle per week. 

Last-mile market growth and challenges

In line with market forecasts, the last-mile sector exhibited resilience with a current valuation of US$79.9 billion (approx. GBP£64 billion) and a predicted CAGR of 8.1% up to 2030¹. However, this growth comes with challenges, including a projected spike in emissions from delivery traffic and traffic congestion in major cities. 

The World Economic Forum² estimates that emissions from delivery traffic in the world’s 100 largest cities will surge by 32% by 2030, while traffic congestion is predicted to increase by more than 21%. That’s the equivalent of 11 additional minutes of commute time for passengers every day globally, and considerably more for delivery fleets.

Insights for the future

Geotab's report points to data-driven strategies as critical for optimising cost and performance. Improved route planning, demand forecasting, and vehicle utilisation lead to lower operational costs and environmental impacts, alongside higher customer satisfaction through reliable, on-time delivery.

"Understanding the dynamics of fleet utilisation in real-time is essential for the sustainable evolution of our cities. Not only do businesses benefit from decreased operational costs and increased efficiency, but cities also gain from smarter development, and the environment sees less strain due to reduced congestion and emissions," Kulperger added.

'Driving the Last-Mile' looks into how the delivery sector copes with the demands of the period from Black Friday through Boxing Day — from 2020 to 2023.